Golden Rock Financial Dialogue CCTV can be high during the year

 CCTV Golden Rock Financial Dialogue: Can a new high during the year?
2009  3 December evening When will you have expressed such a view: new highs during the year is unlikely, I do not know whether it is now still adhere to this judge? or more confirmed?
Golden Rock: basically unchanged, since 3300 in the stock index -3478 point range chips accumulated a lot of people in the hold out. but now is a market timing, stock market ready, waiting for a trumpet.
Moderator: What number in the end blow? We wait to continue the discussion. I found that slightly adjust your point of view, before you point that the stock index 2700-3300, the range has changed you?
Golden Rock: Yes. We predict the stock market will be relatively time locked in a period of about six months inside. were talking about stock index 2700-3300 points, clearly refers to the July to December this year, this range. Over the past five months in the Shanghai Composite Index to break through this time interval a total of not more than 10 days, the stock index is now about 2700-4000 points mainly refers to the first half of next year, next year is expected to have a blue chip market.
Moderator: Do you think the trumpet before, what factors are of concern to the special needs of investors, such as greater certainty what factors ?
Golden Rock: Before some pessimistic views, such as the second wave of financial turmoil, the stock market will be second bottom, and so on, especially now that the outbreak of the debt crisis of Dubai, has caused some uncertainty. previous stream of the stock market correction, it is feared the government's economic policy tone changed, and now at least have a tone of constant resolution of policies.
Moderator: ah, very clear. You mentioned a number of uncertain factors, such as Dubai events, we also see the end of November the stock market crash, the Dubai event is a very important reason. In fact, the event in Dubai has just happened, so we had very serious panic, fear will not lead in the second wave of financial crisis many world-class stars are real estate investment there is now very serious loss. I would also like gossip, I heard that you were there before also invested in real estate, are not you?
Golden Rock: How can the things, when we look at Dubai is a tower built on the myth of the sand, because a population of only 10,UGG boots clearance,004 thousand beach town, in just a decade grown to 140 million, 95% of foreign population. Dubai on behalf of the Arab world a dream: after 30 years does not rely on oil to survive! But the dream gave birth to a Dubai plans, from the basic culture of Islam, because Islam against the financial, you go to see to know the Islamic areas, the Islamic Inter-believers can not be considered of interest to borrow money, Islam against gambling, Las Vegas replication in Dubai, it is impossible!
Moderator: So, building a tower from the sand to indicate the start of the day to collapse < br> King of rock: that is, the bitter fruit of today is brewing that year, and now the crisis has settled I would think that is the problem, so that this is the end of a financial crisis, a landmark event.
Moderator: You this is understandable! is not to say the impact of events in Dubai are basically came to an end? do not have to worry about?
Golden Rock: basically no impact on the Chinese economy, apart from a few people out there speculation, the loss does not matter . We think from a different angle, the beginning of this thing broke out, such a long time how the media did not disclose. was throwing a lot of Dubai airport luxury car, avoiding the debt of the people ran. Why was it not disclosed? because then we have difficulties, you have your own difficulties, I have my own difficulties, let no one touch this thing. Today, I give you a call, and said this thing to an end. What does that mean that you bottom out, I bottom out, the skyrocketing price of oil has solved the problem.
Moderator: So when faced with life-threatening illness when the first settlement, and now what a cold, it seems not a major event. Do you think Dubai crisis for the world financial crisis, draw a full stop on the world economic recovery and growth is more optimistic?
Golden Rock: It should be said that it would continue to appear landmark event, draw a milestone in world economic recovery, the Dubai event is a sign of milestones, one of China's economic recovery is more important milestone.
Moderator: economic recovery, too? you optimistic about the Chinese economy to what extent?
Golden Rock: Obviously, we have been away from previously dependent on export-oriented economic cycle, the first to start the recovery. shows that the Chinese economic recovery of the internal drive, this inner drive, we can see that confidence in the government and government-led investment, behind the fact there are deeper reasons .
Moderator: Do you think that as a barometer of the national economy, China's stock market next year if there is a wave of very decent price?
Golden Rock: The stock market is an intrinsic property of the interaction between the economic cycle. The stock market soared 3 -6 months will be transmitted to the property market, property market soaring conducted 3-6 months to land, land prices rising 3-6 months will lead to increased size of the real estate finance, real estate financing in place when the new round of real estate bubble was blowing up.
Moderator: Dr. King on the future of China's economy and the stock market is very optimistic, I remember that the strategy in the Golden State Securities raised the stock market next year, 4,000 points on the probe stock index, you think this may be conservative , and to determine your optimism will rise to how many points do?
Golden Rock: Now the most optimistic sector has seen stock index was 5,000 points, and I think this prediction has gone too far. next year stock index 2700 - generally constitutes a 4,000 point trading range, as we say the same point in 2009 stock index 2700-3300, does not rule out a 5% to 10% of the cross-border shock, the core fluctuations in the stock index 3000m4000 point range, so I The market concept is at any time in the main stock index this month, nearly 3,000 points to buy it eyes closed!
Moderator: It is a very good market timing
Golden Rock: Yes, to be able to withstand 5% 10% of the stock shocks.
Moderator: Do you think the stock index on the red next year, 4000 points is no problem?
Golden Rock: The tone of unchanged policies, the main stock index also may exceed 4,000 points, because the most important is that people will Commission will give a full year's work plan, we should remember the three major reforms of 2009 stock index futures,UGG boots cheap, margin trading and the GEM. now scheduled to open the GEM, the circulation market is basically split share structure reform completed. So stock index futures and margin trading? I think will be launched in due course, the introduction of these two reforms would benefit what is it, constitute the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock, is not that big blue chip, blue chip market ready to be hair, so we waiting for, so what? other trumpet.
Moderator: So you think that the main force under the guidance of a market is a blue chip?
Golden Rock: Yes, preparing for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index futures will constitute a market of 300 stocks there, when stock index futures market was fried, during that time there have been blue-chip market. blue-chip market from speculation, is subject concept. But more importantly, if you really have a stock index futures, at least there will be two new investment model, one holding 300 shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index used to hedge risk positions, and second, when in possession of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures arbitrage, leverage can amplify investment. The two methods will be the agency to focus attention on the Shanghai and Shenzhen shares constitute 300.
Moderator: We have also seen the recent news of, say on the introduction of stock index futures and margin trading are confident that next year, so it seems introduction of stock index futures expectations is quite clear. If everything is ready, only a strong wind, and other things we ready yet? there any other things it supports the interpretation of blue chips?
Golden Rock: Of course the ultimate thing is the macroeconomic policy, people worried about the tone of macroeconomic policy might change, the report of the Political Bureau yesterday made it clear this fear removed, clear the There are some we have to worry about, one of which is the risk of inflation. Next year, marking the first half of CPI inflation, if the accident occurred up, blue chip market can be cut, which is we need to pay attention to. In addition, the support of blue-chip prices The stock market itself also the valuation is supported by fundamentals.
Moderator: that is, performance
Golden Rock: Yes, for the performance of listed companies, we are nearly 1,000 companies listed on the dynamics of non-ST valuation analysis shows that earnings growth next year will be more than 25%, that is what we expected for next year one of the reasons to be optimistic.
Moderator: you estimate the performance of listed companies rose by more than 25%, is also optimistic. However, we have not heard the same voice, is about the capital side,Discount UGG boots, it seems that money is not favored by blue-chip organizations such as the Fund's Chief Investment Officer of China Peng Cheng Shijie, said: , the higher positions within the Fund will not have much in the short term funding to support the broader blue-chip market. funds face a real impact, or blue chips. Why money effect in the small cap high? still remember last time we say here GEM GEM up a fire, but fire would not have been burned down, with the second, third and even fourth stage GEM companies one after another, the flame will gradually went down, and big money is to pay attention to blue chips, as representatives of blue-chip really the fundamentals of the economy and the stock market. motherboard market fundamentals pay attention to three numbers: the first is more than 9% economic growth,cheap UGG boots, which is to determine the macroeconomic trends; second is money growth rate remained at 25%, which is the keynote of loose monetary policy unchanged, means that the bank credit running close to 10 trillion this year, though not, at least not less than 7 trillion, which is a macro funds face; the third? We pay attention to the operating results of the Main Board listed companies increased by more than 25%. focus on the three basic figures, we can have an appointment to talk again next July.
Moderator: But there are questions, as we so optimistic, why is it blue-chip has been no action?
Golden Rock: or are we talking about last time: ; size of the non-pot of water. the size of the reduction of non-pressure and velocity constraint expansion of large capitalization stocks rise the cap stocks, blue chips led the recent sluggish performance.
Moderator: Chong Fenghao reform once sounded, the market to stop it! < br> Golden Rock: Yes. This wave of market there is a potential factor, I mean stock index futures. stock index futures have a feature that will calm the size of non-stock, because the size of your non-stock holdings after the lift can be sold, if the holders of the stock index arbitrage can get cash income, it will weaken the motivation to sell ban stocks.
Moderator: Since the blue-chip stock market is the dominant next clue, which we should choose the blue chips? a reference to blue chips, people always think of Yinxing real estate in your layout you have these two plates?
Golden Rock: Why do we all think here? In fact, this round of economic recovery in both China and the world, the real action is six words: invoice votes, blowing bubbles. invoiced tickets and blowing bubbles is the driving force behind the financial, real estate.
Moderator: the more tickets will become more? it more and more bubbles will not Big?
Golden Rock: The process is inevitable, situation got out of each vote is spilled, it must be for items of value. invoice ticket is most likely on the price of asset price inflation, because the excess money to flow into the consumer once the issue market, not only will save the economic crisis, but will lead to political instability. Thus it is wiser, and the introduction of investment goods over the currency market and allow people to share the wealth bubble feast risk assessment process.
Moderator: Are you Bank optimistic or not optimistic about real estate in the end, more optimistic about that one?
Golden Rock: are good. we are talking about blue-chip financial and real estate can not be separated, because the A-share market value of bank shares accounted for more than 30% the proportion of bank real estate About 40% of the total, so the blue-chip market is not possible to rule out about the two plates.
Moderator: Several researchers from the analysis, it seems that the performance of real estate better than the bank, how do you see?
Golden Rock: Because there are some hidden performance of banks, interest rates are still discount it! credit voted so many people worry about the quality of bank assets, the latest bank financing, it makes one worry that banks may raise equity capital ratio, I see this is not the major threat.