Analyst SMS 05-11

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investment strategy of information: the economic scene after the big turning point
Zhou Jintao: the big turning point standing cycle: strategy in the second quarter we made in the report, the second quarter, the global economic recovery in the inventory cycle passive highest point economic recovery is the ultimate end point. for the United States, along with the second peak of the inventory cycle, the U.S. mid-market will top, for China, the economic cycle interpretation of the reason and the result again in 2009, the excitement comes from the release of excess liquidity, and we have repeatedly made, that is the point of the Chinese economy where the biggest risk, so the recovery is taking the end of the bubble, and this seems to only just begun retribution, the cycle of boom and bust again concentration.
abandoned cyclical industry, and strategic emerging industries is still high above, this is the revision of the market characteristics, market characteristics that since the fourth quarter last year, slowly toward the extreme, constantly questioned the valuation of differentiation has increasingly been recognized in the market place operating mode may be disruptive changes in the economic cycle and based on our operating rules of the understanding of China's industrialization, disruptive changes in this market, certainly has its inherent roots, Intuition tells us that change in the mode of economic growth in China has been the market will boom over the past 5 years in the bull market a comprehensive theoretical system subversion, China's market may be entering an origin area.
big turning point after the economic scene: we say that this year, quarter of the end of the inventory cycle is a big turning point, the turning point of the The end of the sign. redemption after the redemption of economic operation to get rid of the characteristics of the access have been due process, which is the big turning point after the economic scene. The economic picture for the global economy is entering a no trend recovery of the transition period, and in this early stage, the first is to solve stimulation after-effects, which have the characteristics of the secondary to stagflation stock. For China, is a search for new economic growth point of the process, while the stimulus to the Chinese economy dependence on investment development to the extreme, this is against the law of the economic growth of industrialization, growth of this law against the side effects of industrialization and digestion and to find economic growth are intertwined to constitute a major turning point after the basic characteristics of China's economy. the core of this paper is to study
big turning point after the picture of the global and Chinese economy to a large framework, 2008 to 2010, after the salvation of the crisis, long-wave will enter a recession in the second half of the second half feature is essentially a segment of economic trends and economic salvation would have characteristics of complex, so it will show weak growth and moderate inflation, balance of features. The long-wave decline and the 70s recession in the latter half of the long-wave, or have a relatively large different, as we understand it, the biggest feature of this decline is in the balance sheet under the lack of demand destruction, including the European sovereign debt crises are all included in this framework, this corresponds with the fluidity is the excessive release, so after the big turning point of the core of the global economic scene is insufficient demand and excess liquidity in the game process, and this core proposition will lead to many follow-up conclusions.
insufficient demand and excess liquidity in the game: demand inadequate and a combination of excess liquidity will lead to what kind of economic characteristics of it, which is of course compared with after 70 years, in fact, 70 years after the recession half of the long-wave fundamental economic characteristics that global stagflation, then, our times are consistent with the 70's, this is a more perspective on the future economic characteristics of the research, based on this logic, we consider that demand is concerned, the economic growth of developed economies, the downward movement of the central and deleveraging will be substantially the gap caused by insufficient global demand, although there are studies that emerging economies will become a new impetus to the global economy, this may be analogous to the Japanese economy after 70 years continuous growth, but growth in Japan's economic model is based on energy conservation and industrial upgrading based, is currently represented by China's emerging economies are basically impossible to convert a similar pattern of economic growth, so if you want to emerging economies in the investment-led growth model, and the global liquidity-driven bubble-type itself is a paradox in terms of inflation.
for inflation, the cost impact of 70 years is a process, especially for the real economy and cost impact of the passive nature of the demand of economic growth produced a suppression. At present, inflation is expected to be more from the field of asset prices, excess liquidity from the stimulus, therefore, this stimulation pattern caused by insufficient demand, inflation expectations and the combination of economic nature, to show the characteristics of the bubble rather than the inflation . So, this liquidity to stimulate some economic growth and the volatility of asset prices, that is, a behavior-led economic growth and the expected characteristics.
false and true stagflation deflation: In accordance with the law of cycles in After the high point of the inventory cycle, there will be a phased period of stagflation, at least before the first half of next year is true, but the demand uncertainty and the volatility of liquidity, we think that stagflation could be short term a stage characteristics. the medium term, this stagnation to rapid deflation may be over, the lack of demand is still the dominant economic scene after the next turning point of the essential characteristics of the excess liquidity may only increase the economic game in the coming year uncertainty and volatility in the. stagflation just the inevitability of the follow-up from the effects of excess liquidity, rather than with long-term basis, that is, in the coming year, the economy in stagflation is an illusion, perhaps in A year later, the economic transition to deflation will become clearer.
style layout on the investment in the Chinese economy: for China, since 2008, the stimulus is actually the Chinese economy's dependence on investment rose to a very push To, but this is the inverse law of industrialization, the Chinese economy has been changing the growth mode is very urgent requirement, or that the bubble and inflation itself to force us to change the existing pattern of growth, this year's second quarter is such a switch point. Originally, after the industrial take-off, investors still hold a major position in the economy, but after 2008 the over-investment and the resulting inflation constraint makes the investment structure must undergo a process of change and the growth rate down. and At the same time, we have not immediately find a new method of China's economic growth. So, the market trades away from the general direction of cyclical point of view is in line with historical trends, but, standing on the origin of an economic growth model, we future economic growth where there is no grasp of enthusiasm for the new industry strategy can be seen as a layout, it does not mean a necessity.
has always been our view that future investments in new growth reasonable choice of this period, but the industrial law tells us that even if true to the formation of new industry new impetus to the economy, that is 5 to 10 years after the thing, and at this stage, I believe that the investment strategy is a new industry Fixed investment in fixed assets to promote economic thinking of the old wine in new bottle is installed, the nature and investment-led model and is no different. Therefore, the investment market has only just begun the transformation of thinking is not to say that we see in the broader market last August after the top into a new mode of thinking of.
theoretical system and a hint of subversion: the theory of economic cycles and long-term industrial research tells us that after the redemption, the global and China in 2010 2 quarters for the sector, into a real area and the confusion of the origin of this confusion may go on the existence of two stages, in the coming year, the global and China's core task is to resolve the aftermath of the release of an excess of liquidity, This is a in the foreseeable future the most painful process, because the original model has been completely lost confidence, while the negative impact of the original model that economic stagnation has been the haunt us in the recent global equity, foreign exchange and subtle movements of commodity markets has been reflected this mood, and liquidity led to the volatility of asset prices make even more uncertain at this stage, which itself shows a kind of end will come.
the end of the first stage in the After using the existing theory to explain the future had appeared to be inadequate, according to my understanding of the theory for the process of industrialization, the basic laws of economics can not predict the time being 2 to 3 years, China's economic growth, and for the direction of China's economic growth, only policy is the core, this is the conclusion Rostow theory beyond doubt, so if we can choose short-term investment ideas, then it must be starting to find clues from the policy. because the policy decision to take the contradictions of China's most concentrated in the industrialized whether moment of the outbreak of choice in the right direction, so the dividend policy is to look for new economic growth point and premise of the reality of clues.
Since 2007, we have been using economic cycle theory and the theory of industrialization and forecasts economic and market trends in China . But by the second quarter, we believe that this theoretical system must be extended, mentioned above, growth patterns change is inevitable that extended, so that in the coming year, the economic adjustment process which will also be kinds of theoretical system re-carding process. The reconstruction of the core of the theoretical system that is excavated from the medium-term perspective to the sustainability of short-term company growth, there is naturally included in the understanding of a variety of medium-term growth under a variety of innovative models of probability. Therefore, starting from the second quarter of this origin, the theoretical system needs reform, I believe the market entered a phase of diversification, but no order in this phase, the market began to trend of investment by the divergence of investment to stock conversion, the market has entered a initiative to create opportunities for investment combined with the layout of the stage type.
tourism industry: 2010 results are expected to continue to grow
Shenzhou Xiang: 2009 tourism sector performance has resumed growth, and the first quarter of 2010 tourism sector performance remains faster rate. we judge, tourism performance in 2010 is expected to maintain plate high growth momentum. We believe that the tourism sector to adjust short-term pressure, but still long-term investment value. focus Guilin, China Travel, Jinling Hotel, Lijiang tourism, Jinjiang shares, CYTS, Shoulvgufen, three Teso Road, Mountain, Huangshan Tourism.
shipping industry: the recent rising Comments
money grand BDI: Recent BDI appears to rise rapidly, rising from around 3000 3700 to the present, we believe that there are two main reasons, first, during the negotiations early iron ore, iron ore suppliers raise prices in order to reduce the iron ore shipments, while domestic stocks, after the conclusion of negotiations, mining shipments resume, the domestic demand for covering short-term rise in stock; second, Southwest massive drought reduced hydropower generation, thermal power demand on the rise, thus increasing demand for coal imports. These two factors will bring one in the near future BDI's rally round, but with these two factors may mitigate the gradual return to normal. investment advice, we continue to pre-judge, the shipping industry has been in the recovery period, but over the past two years, overcapacity in the environment continue to exist, the recovery process will be slow. current industry profitability has been restored to the level of tariffs rose sharply after the short-term continuing difficult, in this expectation, short-term increase in freight rates soaring share price hard drive. Even taking into account the current freight shipping companies some super-expected performance in 2010 is still a big attraction, within six months of view, the opportunity will not be too great. but considering the overall trend in the shipping business behind the broader market higher in the short term can be combined with the trend of the China Ocean BDI index, etc. Dry bulk companies involved in trading.
cloud power (000,903) Research Bulletin: moving finished the first half of the cloud
Chengdu High Xiaochun: slightly lower than expected first quarter results. A quarter of revenue growth was lower than expected mainly structural changes and delays in the sales revenue is recognized. a quarter of a slight increase in total sales volume of diesel engine, mainly an increase of 10% or more 90 series, while the decline in sales of the company headquarters; volume changes in the structure makes the sales revenue declined slightly. Meanwhile, some delivery contracts Because prices are not final, postponed to the second quarter revenue is recognized.
Chengdu, the first half of the relocation is completed within the cloud, operating loss. Last year, sales of more than 60,000 cloud Chengdu units operating loss of 5,000 million. in the first half , with the final completion of a production line relocation, the relocation will be the successful conclusion of the whole, the impact of the relocation will be reduced to bring the sales, operating loss this year of 3,000 million yuan.
diesel car sales in the release depends on the support policies . At present, diesel sedan such as the promotion of consumers still face misunderstanding, oil low, noise and vibration, and other unfavorable factors, demand is difficult to fast, explosive growth; future growth also need to rely on the strong support of national policy.
Shenzhen High Point good will is not strong short-term dividends. Although the company holds 21.19% of Shenzhen's high particularly good option, but still cost method, to avoid the equity method of accounting on results of large fluctuations. the present high reserve of projects particularly good more such as Jiangxi Boya, Zhengzhou coal, etc.; is currently at an early stage, is expected to short-term dividends will is not strong, the company's investment income contributes little.
earnings forecast and valuation. We expect that, given this year there are clouds in Chengdu factor in the relocation of land subsidies, 2010 to 2012 the company achieved earnings per share 0.53,0.43 and 0.65 yuan, 14 yuan price target to give an