Financial and Capital Market Research Fudan University, Director of the Centre Professor Xie Baisan
instant start the first week of 2010 passed mm Scholars in the New Year's Eve, the great expectations in 2010, even if the pessimistic people who think that the stock market this year will be the first high to low, was an inverted V-shaped state, that is, first ascribed, again in two to three months after slow down. and others optimistic point of view 3800 m 4200 points or more. However, the start of the next day, A shares plunged to the people excitedly poured a bucket of cold water; Tuesday after a rebound on Wednesday, the four continue to drop 100 points (Shenzhen similar), on Friday to drop to 3149 points, only appeared once again rebound. the banner of bank shares in 2009, China Merchants Bank rose 1 per the last day, shot up to 18.10, turnover increased by 2 times ( people to meet the margin and the advent of stock index futures), the results of the new year two days, dropped to 16.68 yuan, a great deal, the initiative is suspected of fleeing. Vanke real estate stocks on behalf of the trend is also bad in the shade of fall Last year, a bull market so big, it's 40 yuan from the end of 2007 dropped to 4.80 yuan (7.7 yuan after re right), are still 10.3 yuan (16.5 yuan after re right) wandering around, the real estate sector in general trend of bad If Shenchangcheng, Chinese enterprises and so on. while banks, real estate, at least two plates, the weight of 50% to 55% or more, (the bank is about 40%), while real estate, banking on the plate, the addition of business and great, which dragged down the market trend.
what happened?
first. Monetary policy in adherence to the at the end of the bull market and bear market in 2008, people on monetary policy on the Chinese economy, the stock market has Audition feeling the impact. It can actually make the stock market was up 6 times, or more than 75%, you can also make the real estate market ups and downs .
the People's Bank of China 6, 2010 work session ended, the communique says the meeting: 2010, the central bank will adhere to the maintain sufficient policy efforts to support stable and rapid economic development; have to price level stability,UGG boots, effective management of inflation expectations. closely follow domestic and international economic operation situation, between prevention quarter, the monthly abnormal fluctuations between by consumption, investment, exports are negative), lending to new projects changes in the real estate credit policies strictly enforced hh to promote the conduct RMB business in Hong Kong and Macao, and promote substantive cross-strait financial cooperation.
mm general feeling is: adhere to the moderate liberal monetary policy, but more emphasis on ; inflation expectations reform, speeding up the (should be to loose, still higher than 2008's 4.9 trillion loose.) , brokerage and other concerns and anxiety appeared, and soon responded in the market.
second. great thing is: the State Administration of Taxation decided to major cities this year, idling in the original pilot for six years, Later, a rebound in the market, the request itself (as the opportunity to flee again), but on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday and then dropped.
It can be said is more speculation late last year,cheap UGG boots, the higher the more prosperous the more speculation in the a large number of bad debts caused by bank.
idling in several cities had a variety of pilot programs, such as the American way that each house of the tax (0.8% m 3%, or 100 million annual levy property taxes $ 8000-30000); Korean way, ie the consent of a small suite, and the second, three more progressive tax levy higher, mainly to curb property speculation. Either way, the impact on Chinese real estate market will be very large. Just think, every house Shanghai old in 150 m 200 million or more, the new in the 200 m 300 million or more, if the levy of 1% per year, ie 1.5 m 2 million (new home for the 2 m 3 million); the average household income of just 8 m 9 million people can accept it? If the second, three sets of tax, the first set did not sign, will inevitably lead to hundreds of thousands or even millions of families leave the divorce, illegal cohabitation. (Pearl River Delta with the provisions of a city can use a motorcycles, there is a divorce the couple bought two cars off the) majority of Chinese people are not rich, but to the measures on the policy and would encourage his son, daughter, early marriage and early puppy love to buy a house early housing allocation, in order to avoid this tax. More importantly, is that the Chinese real estate the following 70 years the land was borrowed, and the house will be more use the old, would devalue the property up primarily of land in the up; no land, no Western countries on the true meaning of the property, by come to the property, how to tax? now prices so high, 2.5 m 3 case of square meters, inside more than 70 years of land use fees, and endless here, including some of the property tax? whether there is suspicion of double taxation? In addition, Shanghai after the child (child), will be from the grandparents,UGGs, grandfather, grandmother, father and mother inherited another suite, is an elderly person's death to levy property tax?
In addition, monetary policy, liberal, real estate to rose (as in 2009, Shanghai, many rose 40% m 50%); monetary policy tightening, the real estate to crash (such as 2008, Shanghai, multiple or 20%), how the valuation, whether a change in one year tax, so who is going to valuation, there are so many human it? they just do, you will be rent-seeking? had already paid high property taxes for land use fees and how to do? rural and small city levy is not imposed? how defined? and so on and so on. In short, this is very complicated. Although it is idling, but after all the city to the country, and still very threatening, so the housing market, the stock market pressure.
third. Luantong will cause the bubble years of economic depression, I want to be cautious on real estate rose shot up
also very much against, a large family who toil 20 m 30 years, the deposits 30 m 100 million, to buy a house now, and son rose to 200 million, deposits of all engulfed. people are not afraid of how it is not urgent, children in Beijing, Shanghai university, after graduating sooner or later have to buy a house, a go up no hope.
no country in so many cities The men and women in the home, grab the Housing, real estate speculators.
but cooling is a difficult system engineering, to use conservative treatment, can not use shock therapy. a professor at Fudan University said, no good end. 60%, down three and a half, the results of a depressed economy, (GDP negative growth), a large number of unemployed workers and social turmoil. until 2001, the central government relief, some real estate recovery policy over heating.
Japan 1990 After the bank to raise interest rates, inadvertently pierce the bubble, the real estate slump, the results of cooling the economy for 20 years, has built up. the original and two German 20 years, and finally catch up with China in the 2009 generation, became third in the world.
In short, the real estate speculation bubble not mad, reckless stab is not right, especially the economy is just to recover, is still very unstable the occasion, once fully cooled, the local budget deficit increases, not the local government borrowing, banking a large number of bad debts, 19 m 40 industry has been dragged down, hh, but also a lot of people are unemployed, 20 million migrant workers back to rural areas,UGG boots clearance, will panic The.
I propose to do research, use of systems engineering methods, steadily and carefully cooling, or less do not rise up. For the bubble to deflate slowly, do not use needles to pierce. as critically ill patients, use safe, gentle approach to conditioning, treatment, and can not use strong medicine. In addition to the results of disease, people over. In short, be careful urge caution. and the economy will cool to have the spirit for many years to prepare and material preparation.
【 on the stock market: the property tax or idling, but also, all the reflected, in addition to 1 m 2 月份 lending will be greater, in addition, the State, Premier Wen would like to take a good stock, so after high tide in January issue of new shares, should also a wave of market price. hopes that we could make wishes come true. investors a good position to control, buy low, sell high throw my son.】
Note: the end of this writing, came the State Council on the agreed introduction of stock index futures and margin of the news, it is a good thing, is conducive to improve our capital markets. but does not change the nature of stock index futures market and long-term trend, but recent trends have significantly helped the broader market, we should note that stock index futures structural changes brought about, that weight will be the blue chips had concerns.
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